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| What to Adjust | Why It Helps | Quick Code |
|----------------|--------------|------------|
| Seasonality granularity (add daily + hourly) | Captures fine‑grained peaks that Boost Recall | model_set.prophet.add_seasonality(name='hourly', period=24, fourier_order=6) |
| Loss weighting (favor high‑error windows) | Improves Accuracy on tail events | model_set.lstm.set_loss_weights(high_error=2.0) |
| Ensemble blending ratio (increase deep‑learners) | Deep models often raise Reliability on non‑linear regimes | model_set.set_blend_weights('arima':0.2, 'prophet':0.2, 'lstm':0.4, 'transformer':0.2) |
| Data augmentation (bootstrapped resampling) | Reduces over‑fitting → higher Recall | model_set.augment_bootstrap(samples=5, seed=42) |
| Post‑processing smoothing (Kalman filter) | Eliminates spurious spikes → higher Accuracy | forecast_smoothed = model_set.smooth_kalman(forecast) | melanie tmf models set 95rar work
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